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Trat FC vs Chainat — Thai League 2 2018

Trat FC
Trat FC
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Chainat
Chainat
4/19/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Trat Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Trat FC53%
×Draw24%
Chainat23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trat FC
1.68
Chainat
1.00

Trat FC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

creates per match

Trat FC
1.87
Chainat
1.07

allows per match

Trat FC
0.93
Chainat
1.49

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par
Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Chainat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw
77%
Trat FC or Chainat
76%
Draw or Chainat
47%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+
29%
Chainat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals
81%
Trat FC 2+ goals
50%
Trat FC 3+ goals
24%
Chainat 1+ goals
63%
Chainat 2+ goals
26%
Chainat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)
70%
Chainat (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chainat attack 1.07 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Trat FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Chainat scores more
23%

Trat FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Trat FC 3–3 Chainat

Trat FC and Chainat drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on April 19, 2026.

The match was played at Trat Provincial Stadium in Trat.