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Chainat vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Trat FC
Trat FC
3/4/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Chainat47%
×Draw25%
Trat FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.60
Trat FC
1.19

Chainat creates 34% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 84 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
72%
Chainat or Trat FC
75%
Draw or Trat FC
53%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
24%
Trat FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
80%
Chainat 2+ goals
47%
Chainat 3+ goals
22%
Trat FC 1+ goals
70%
Trat FC 2+ goals
33%
Trat FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
62%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.60

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chainat scores more
47%
level
25%
Trat FC scores more
28%

Chainat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chainat vs Trat FC

Trat FC beat Chainat 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.