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Trastevere vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Trastevere
Trastevere
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
9/17/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Trastevere40%
×Draw25%
Ostia Mare35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trastevere
1.49
Ostia Mare
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

creates per match

Trastevere
1.83
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Trastevere
1.18
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Trastevere+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trastevere ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trastevere or draw
65%
Trastevere or Ostia Mare
75%
Draw or Ostia Mare
60%

Winning margin

Trastevere wins by 2+
19%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Trastevere 1+ goals
77%
Trastevere 2+ goals
44%
Trastevere 3+ goals
19%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
75%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
40%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Trastevere (draw refunded)
53%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trastevere at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trastevere attack 1.83 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Trastevere defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trastevere scores more
40%
level
25%
Ostia Mare scores more
35%

Trastevere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trastevere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trastevere vs Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Trastevere 3-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet in Roma.