Ostia Mare 2–0 Trastevere: Result & Stats

Ostia Mare

FT

2 – 0

Trastevere

9/29/2019

Serie D - Girone G · Round 5Stadio Anco Marzio (Lido di Ostia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ostia Mare47%

×Draw26%

Trastevere28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostia MareExpected goals in this matchTrastevere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.11

Ostia Mare

1.52

Trastevere

1.11

Ostia Mare creates 37% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 64 away

1.39

creates per match

1.30

0.93

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Ostia Mare

1.39

Trastevere

1.30

allows per match

Ostia Mare

0.93

Trastevere

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

Trastevere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw

72%

Ostia Mare or Trastevere

74%

Draw or Trastevere

53%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

23%

Trastevere wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

78%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

45%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

20%

Trastevere 1+ goals

67%

Trastevere 2+ goals

30%

Trastevere 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

63%

Trastevere (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ostia Mare scores more

47%

level

26%

Trastevere scores more

28%

Ostia Mare at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff