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Trastevere vs Città di Anagni — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Trastevere
Trastevere
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
3/1/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 26Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trastevere50%
×Draw23%
Città di Anagni27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trastevere
1.80
Città di Anagni
1.25

Trastevere creates 44% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 13 away

creates per match

Trastevere
1.83
Città di Anagni
1.31

allows per match

Trastevere
1.18
Città di Anagni
1.77

finishing

Trastevere+0.00on par
Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trastevere ↓

Città di Anagni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Trastevere or draw
73%
Trastevere or Città di Anagni
77%
Draw or Città di Anagni
50%

Winning margin

Trastevere wins by 2+
28%
Città di Anagni wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trastevere 1+ goals
83%
Trastevere 2+ goals
54%
Trastevere 3+ goals
27%
Città di Anagni 1+ goals
71%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
36%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Trastevere (draw refunded)
65%
Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trastevere at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Città di Anagni away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trastevere attack 1.83 + Città di Anagni defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Città di Anagni attack 1.31 + Trastevere defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Trastevere scores more
50%
level
23%
Città di Anagni scores more
27%

Trastevere at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trastevere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Trastevere 3–1 Città di Anagni

Trastevere beat Città di Anagni 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet.