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Città di Anagni vs Trastevere — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
FT
0 – 1
Trastevere
Trastevere
10/27/2019Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 9Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Città di Anagni36%
×Draw25%
Trastevere39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Città di Anagni
1.40
Trastevere
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 64 away

creates per match

Città di Anagni
1.15
Trastevere
1.30

allows per match

Città di Anagni
1.62
Trastevere
1.66

finishing

Città di Anagni+0.00on par
Trastevere+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Città di Anagni ↓

Trastevere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Città di Anagni or draw
61%
Città di Anagni or Trastevere
75%
Draw or Trastevere
64%

Winning margin

Città di Anagni wins by 2+
17%
Trastevere wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Città di Anagni 1+ goals
75%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
41%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
17%
Trastevere 1+ goals
77%
Trastevere 2+ goals
43%
Trastevere 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
48%
Trastevere (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Città di Anagni at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Trastevere away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.66 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Città di Anagni attack 1.15 + Trastevere defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Trastevere attack 1.30 + Città di Anagni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Città di Anagni scores more
36%
level
25%
Trastevere scores more
39%

Trastevere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trastevere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Città di Anagni 0–1 Trastevere

Trastevere beat Città di Anagni 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Caslini Andrea (Colleferro).