Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trarza AC vs SNIM — Premier League 2020

Trarza AC
Trarza AC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SNIM
SNIM
5/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Trarza AC32%
×Draw31%
SNIM37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trarza AC
0.92
SNIM
1.01

SNIM creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 78 away

creates per match

Trarza AC
0.78
SNIM
0.91

allows per match

Trarza AC
1.11
SNIM
1.05

finishing

Trarza AC+0.00on par
SNIM+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trarza AC ↓

SNIM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Trarza AC or draw
63%
Trarza AC or SNIM
69%
Draw or SNIM
68%

Winning margin

Trarza AC wins by 2+
11%
SNIM wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Trarza AC 1+ goals
60%
Trarza AC 2+ goals
23%
Trarza AC 3+ goals
7%
SNIM 1+ goals
64%
SNIM 2+ goals
27%
SNIM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Trarza AC (draw refunded)
47%
SNIM (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trarza AC at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

SNIM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.05 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trarza AC attack 0.78 + SNIM defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.92

SNIM attack 0.91 + Trarza AC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trarza AC scores more
32%
level
31%
SNIM scores more
37%

SNIM at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trarza AC 0 – 0 SNIM

Trarza AC and SNIM drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.