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SNIM vs Trarza AC — Premier League 2020

SNIM
SNIM
FT
1 – 0
Trarza AC
Trarza AC
12/16/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SNIM46%
×Draw28%
Trarza AC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNIM
1.32
Trarza AC
0.91

SNIM creates 45% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

creates per match

SNIM
0.96
Trarza AC
0.95

allows per match

SNIM
0.87
Trarza AC
1.68

finishing

SNIM+0.00on par
Trarza AC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNIM ↓

Trarza AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SNIM or draw
74%
SNIM or Trarza AC
72%
Draw or Trarza AC
54%

Winning margin

SNIM wins by 2+
21%
Trarza AC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SNIM 1+ goals
73%
SNIM 2+ goals
38%
SNIM 3+ goals
15%
Trarza AC 1+ goals
60%
Trarza AC 2+ goals
23%
Trarza AC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SNIM (draw refunded)
64%
Trarza AC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNIM at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 78 matches

Trarza AC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNIM attack 0.96 + Trarza AC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Trarza AC attack 0.95 + SNIM defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SNIM scores more
46%
level
28%
Trarza AC scores more
26%

SNIM at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SNIM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SNIM 1 – 0 Trarza AC

SNIM beat Trarza AC 1-0 in Premier League on December 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.