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Trapani vs Ascoli — Serie B 2018

Trapani
Trapani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ascoli
Ascoli
1/18/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 20Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Trapani46%
×Draw26%
Ascoli27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trapani
1.46
Ascoli
1.06

Trapani creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 114 away

creates per match

Trapani
1.42
Ascoli
1.08

allows per match

Trapani
1.05
Ascoli
1.50

finishing

Trapani+0.00on par
Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trapani ↓

Ascoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Trapani or draw
73%
Trapani or Ascoli
74%
Draw or Ascoli
54%

Winning margin

Trapani wins by 2+
23%
Ascoli wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Trapani 1+ goals
77%
Trapani 2+ goals
43%
Trapani 3+ goals
18%
Ascoli 1+ goals
65%
Ascoli 2+ goals
29%
Ascoli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Trapani (draw refunded)
63%
Ascoli (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trapani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trapani attack 1.42 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Trapani defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trapani scores more
46%
level
26%
Ascoli scores more
27%

Trapani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trapani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trapani vs Ascoli

Trapani beat Ascoli 3-1 in Serie B on January 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Polisportivo Provinciale in Trapani.