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Ascoli vs Trapani — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Trapani
Trapani
8/24/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ascoli50%
×Draw24%
Trapani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.65
Trapani
1.10

Ascoli creates 50% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.18
Trapani
1.11

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Trapani
2.11

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Trapani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Trapani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
75%
Ascoli or Trapani
76%
Draw or Trapani
50%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
27%
Trapani wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
81%
Ascoli 2+ goals
49%
Ascoli 3+ goals
23%
Trapani 1+ goals
67%
Trapani 2+ goals
30%
Trapani 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
66%
Trapani (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Trapani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Trapani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Trapani attack 1.11 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ascoli scores more
50%
level
24%
Trapani scores more
25%

Ascoli at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ascoli 3 – 1 Trapani

Ascoli beat Trapani 3-1 in Serie B on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.