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Transport vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

Transport
Transport
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Djerba
Djerba
A. Mazhoud 31'
A. Ben Sassi 72'
A. Farhat 48'
K. Derbali 15'
2/13/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Transport41%
×Draw34%
Djerba25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transport
0.98
Djerba
0.68

Transport creates 44% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Transport
0.60
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

Transport
0.80
Djerba
1.36

finishing

Transport+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transport ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Transport or draw
75%
Transport or Djerba
66%
Draw or Djerba
59%

Winning margin

Transport wins by 2+
16%
Djerba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Transport 1+ goals
62%
Transport 2+ goals
26%
Transport 3+ goals
8%
Djerba 1+ goals
49%
Djerba 2+ goals
15%
Djerba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Transport (draw refunded)
63%
Djerba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transport at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transport attack 0.60 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.98

Djerba attack 0.55 + Transport defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Transport scores more
41%
level
34%
Djerba scores more
25%

Transport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Transport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
K. Derbali
31'
A. Mazhoud
48'
A. Farhat
72'
A. Ben Sassi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Transport 1–3 Djerba

Djerba beat Transport 3-1 in Ligue 2 on February 13, 2022.

Goals: K. Derbali (15'), A. Mazhoud (31'), A. Farhat (48'), A. Ben Sassi (72').

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.