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Djerba vs Transport — Ligue 2 2020

Djerba
Djerba
FT
1 – 0
Transport
Transport
A. Ben Sassi 88'
11/13/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Jerba Houmt Souk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Djerba50%
×Draw32%
Transport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djerba
1.15
Transport
0.57

Djerba creates 102% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

creates per match

Djerba
1.09
Transport
0.20

allows per match

Djerba
0.95
Transport
1.20

finishing

Djerba+0.00on par
Transport+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djerba ↓

Transport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Djerba or draw
82%
Djerba or Transport
68%
Draw or Transport
50%

Winning margin

Djerba wins by 2+
22%
Transport wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Djerba 1+ goals
68%
Djerba 2+ goals
32%
Djerba 3+ goals
11%
Transport 1+ goals
43%
Transport 2+ goals
11%
Transport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Djerba (draw refunded)
73%
Transport (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djerba at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Transport away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djerba attack 1.09 + Transport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Transport attack 0.20 + Djerba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Djerba scores more
50%
level
32%
Transport scores more
18%

Djerba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Djerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
A. Ben Sassi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Djerba vs Transport

Djerba beat Transport 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 13, 2021.

Goals: A. Ben Sassi (88').

The match was played at Stade Jerba Houmt Souk in Houmt Souk.