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TransINVEST Vilnius vs Trakai II — 1 Lyga 2026

TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Trakai II
Trakai II
4/2/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 4Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius64%
×Draw19%
Trakai II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransINVEST Vilnius
2.29
Trakai II
1.11

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 106% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
2.80
Trakai II
1.52

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
0.70
Trakai II
1.77

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par
Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Trakai II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw
83%
TransINVEST Vilnius or Trakai II
81%
Draw or Trakai II
36%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
41%
Trakai II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
90%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
66%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
40%
Trakai II 1+ goals
67%
Trakai II 2+ goals
30%
Trakai II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
79%
Trakai II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 30 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.80 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.29

Trakai II attack 1.52 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
64%
level
19%
Trakai II scores more
17%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: TransINVEST Vilnius 2–1 Trakai II

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Trakai II 2-1 in 1 Lyga on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.