Trakai II 1–2 TransINVEST Vilnius: Result & Stats

Trakai II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

TransINVEST Vilnius

8/20/2023

1 Lyga · Round 19Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Trakai II23%

×Draw20%

TransINVEST Vilnius57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trakai IIExpected goals in this matchTransINVEST Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.26

Trakai II

1.39

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.26

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 63% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 29 away

1.74

creates per match

2.86

1.66

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Trakai II

1.74

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.86

allows per match

Trakai II

1.66

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw

43%

Trakai II or TransINVEST Vilnius

80%

Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius

77%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+

10%

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals

75%

Trakai II 2+ goals

40%

Trakai II 3+ goals

16%

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

89%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

66%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)

29%

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.39

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.86 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trakai II scores more

23%

level

20%

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

57%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff