TransINVEST Vilnius 2–2 Suduva Marijampole

TransINVEST Vilnius

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Suduva Marijampole

Henrique Devens 90', 62'

H. Uzochukwu 64'

T. Burdzilauskas 38'

7/20/2024

A Lyga · Round 23Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius34%

×Draw26%

Suduva Marijampole40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchSuduva Marijampole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.36

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.23

Suduva Marijampole

1.36

Suduva Marijampole creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 125 away

1.21

creates per match

1.40

1.32

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.21

Suduva Marijampole

1.40

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.32

Suduva Marijampole

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Suduva Marijampole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

60%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Suduva Marijampole

74%

Draw or Suduva Marijampole

66%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

14%

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

71%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

35%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

13%

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

74%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

39%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

46%

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.21 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.40 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

34%

level

26%

Suduva Marijampole scores more

40%

Suduva Marijampole at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Z. Baltrunas

30'

I. Zotko

38'

T. Burdzilauskas

54'

A. Radchenko← Y. Kawachi

54'

Guilherme Pires← C. Nwoga

59'

D. Stankevičius← M. Pyrohov

59'

U. Oduenyi← N. Solodovnicov

62'

Henrique Devens

64'

H. Uzochukwu

67'

I. Kaškelevičius← P. Kiselevskis

67'

G. Jarusevičius← Carlos Eduardo

67'

K. Kramēns← I. Zotko

67'

L. Zingertas← T. Burdzilauskas

72'

D. Stankevicius

73'

H. Uzochukwu

79'

G. Jarusevicius

85'

I. Kružikas← M. Sato

88'

D. Pudžemys← A. Fedorov

90'

Henrique Devens

TransINVEST

Suduva

12

Zenkeviči

15

Živanović

96

▼

Zotko

5

Baltrūnas

4

⚽

Uzochukwu

2

⚽

▼

Burdzilau

8

Lawson

13

▼

Pyrohov

14

▼

Fedorov

28

Burdzilau

9

▼

25

5

3

77

20

▼

Kiselevsk

75

Stočkūnas

31

▼

Eduardo

45

▼

Sato

14

▼

Kawachi

10

⚽2

Devens

9

▼

Nwoga

Manager: A. Tamaliunas

54'▲A. Radchenko←▼Y. Kawachi

54'▲Guilherme Pires←▼C. Nwoga

67'▲I. Kaškelevičius←▼P. Kiselevskis

67'▲G. Jarusevičius←▼Carlos Eduardo

85'▲I. Kružikas←▼M. Sato

TransINVEST Vilnius substitutes

11Radchenko19Pires12Kaškelevičius99Jarusevičius98Kružikas2Čivilis6Sakurai8Klimavičius21Nikonovas29Bička55Juška89Černiavskij

Manager: D. Lastauskas

59'▲D. Stankevičius←▼M. Pyrohov

59'▲U. Oduenyi←▼N. Solodovnicov

67'▲K. Kramēns←▼I. Zotko

67'▲L. Zingertas←▼T. Burdzilauskas

88'▲D. Pudžemys←▼A. Fedorov

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

88Stankevičius94Oduenyi18Kramēns21Zingertas87Pudžemys66Pačėsa92Dubickas97Gumbelevičius99Stebrys23Stoianov7Česnavičius17Kovbasa