Suduva Marijampole 0–0 TransINVEST Vilnius

Suduva Marijampole

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TransINVEST Vilnius

10/6/2024

A Lyga · Round 32Marijampolės futbolo arenos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Suduva Marijampole47%

×Draw26%

TransINVEST Vilnius27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Suduva MarijampoleExpected goals in this matchTransINVEST Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.05

Suduva Marijampole

1.47

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.05

Suduva Marijampole creates 40% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 30 away

1.57

creates per match

1.27

0.83

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Suduva Marijampole

1.57

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.27

allows per match

Suduva Marijampole

0.83

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suduva Marijampole ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Suduva Marijampole or draw

73%

Suduva Marijampole or TransINVEST Vilnius

74%

Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius

53%

Winning margin

Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+

23%

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals

77%

Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals

43%

Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals

18%

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

65%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

28%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)

63%

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suduva Marijampole at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.83 · 128 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.57 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.27 + Suduva Marijampole defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Suduva Marijampole scores more

47%

level

26%

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

27%

Suduva Marijampole at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

H. Devens

46'

E. Stočkūnas← A. Novikovas

46'

D. Malžinskas← A. Žulpa

60'

R. Filipavicius

61'

Carlos Eduardo

64'

I. Kaškelevičius← M. Sato

65'

M. Pyrohov← M. Burba

70'

Guilherme Pires← Henrique Devens

72'

Ž. Baltrūnas← A. Kovbasa

84'

E. Burdzilauskas

84'

P. Kiselevskis← A. Radchenko

87'

U. Oduenyi← T. Burdzilauskas

Suduva

TransINVEST

25

Čupić

5

Šveikausk

40

Flis

44

▼

Žulpa

18

▼

Novikovas

31

Eduardo

7

Ohori

45

▼

Sato

11

▼

Radchenko

10

▼

9

12

96

18

4

2

▼

8

19

28

17

▼

Kovbasa

24

▼

Burba

9

Solodovni

Manager: D. Lastauskas

65'▲M. Pyrohov←▼M. Burba

72'▲Ž. Baltrūnas←▼A. Kovbasa

87'▲U. Oduenyi←▼T. Burdzilauskas

Suduva Marijampole substitutes

13Pyrohov5Baltrūnas94Oduenyi7Česnavičius15Živanović97Gumbelevičius99Stebrys92Dubickas66Pačėsa

Manager: M. Stankevičius

46'▲E. Stočkūnas←▼A. Novikovas

46'▲D. Malžinskas←▼A. Žulpa

64'▲I. Kaškelevičius←▼M. Sato

70'▲Guilherme Pires←▼Henrique Devens

84'▲P. Kiselevskis←▼A. Radchenko

TransINVEST Vilnius substitutes

75Stočkūnas3Malžinskas12Kaškelevičius19Pires20Kiselevskis89Černiavskij6Sakurai77Pilibaitis14Kawachi