TransINVEST Vilnius 2–1 Nevėžis: Result & Stats

TransINVEST Vilnius

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nevėžis

7/1/2023

1 Lyga · Round 15Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius58%

×Draw21%

Nevėžis21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.14

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.04

Nevėžis

1.14

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

2.80

creates per match

1.57

0.70

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.80

Nevėžis

1.57

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

0.70

Nevėžis

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

79%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Nevėžis

79%

Draw or Nevėžis

42%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

35%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

87%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

60%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

33%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

68%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

32%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

74%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 30 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.80 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

58%

level

21%

Nevėžis scores more

21%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff