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TransINVEST Vilnius vs Nevėžis — Cup 2020

TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilniusadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
5/6/2023CupCup · Round of 32Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius50%
×Draw23%
Nevėžis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.86
Nevėžis
1.32

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
2.22
Nevėžis
1.75

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
0.89
Nevėžis
1.50

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw
73%
TransINVEST Vilnius or Nevėžis
77%
Draw or Nevėžis
50%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
28%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
84%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
55%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
28%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
73%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
38%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
65%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.22 + Nevėžis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nevėžis attack 1.75 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
50%
level
23%
Nevėžis scores more
27%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: TransINVEST Vilnius 5–1 Nevėžis

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Nevėžis 5-1 in Cup on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.