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TransINVEST Vilnius vs Be1 NFA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
2/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius73%
×Draw17%
Be1 NFA9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransINVEST Vilnius
2.23
Be1 NFA
0.64

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 248% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.80
Be1 NFA
0.67

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
0.60
Be1 NFA
2.67

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw
91%
TransINVEST Vilnius or Be1 NFA
83%
Draw or Be1 NFA
27%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
49%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
89%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
65%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
38%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
47%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
14%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
89%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.80 + Be1 NFA defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Be1 NFA attack 0.67 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
73%
level
17%
Be1 NFA scores more
9%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Be1 NFA

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Be1 NFA 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2026.