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Be1 NFA vs TransINVEST Vilnius — 1 Lyga 2026

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
7/27/20251 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 17Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Be1 NFA27%
×Draw22%
TransINVEST Vilnius51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
1.37
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.96

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 29 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
1.71
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.86

allows per match

Be1 NFA
1.06
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.03

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
49%
Be1 NFA or TransINVEST Vilnius
78%
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
73%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
12%
TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
75%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
40%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
16%
TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
86%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
58%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
34%
TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.86 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
27%
level
22%
TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
51%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be1 NFA vs TransINVEST Vilnius

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Be1 NFA 5-1 in 1 Lyga on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.