TransINVEST Vilnius 1–3 Banga: Result & Stats

TransINVEST Vilnius

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Banga

Xabi Auzmendi 37'

I. Venckus 86', 78'

S. Praleika 9'

7/12/2026

A Lyga · Round 22FK TransINVEST stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius40%

×Draw28%

Banga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.27

Banga

1.09

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

1.21

creates per match

0.87

1.32

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.21

Banga

0.87

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.32

Banga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Banga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

68%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Banga

72%

Draw or Banga

60%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

18%

Banga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

72%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

36%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

14%

Banga 1+ goals

66%

Banga 2+ goals

30%

Banga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

56%

Banga (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

Banga away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.32 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.21 + Banga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Banga attack 0.87 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

40%

level

28%

Banga scores more

32%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Praleika

12'

D. Malzinskas

15'

D. Bosnjak

37'

Xabi Auzmendi↳ M. Musolitin

42'

45+4'

52'

63'

71'

D. Sluta← Xabi Auzmendi

71'

H. Tanaka← I. Bilbao

71'

C. Nwoga← S. Milosevic

75'

R. Henning← D. Malzinskas

75'

U. Cande← Cadu

78'

I. Venckus

82'

D. Norvilas← R. Filipavicius

82'

N. Zebrauskas← V. Magdusauskas

86'

I. Venckus

90+3'

Y. Glushach

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff