TransINVEST Vilnius 1–1 Banga: Result & Stats | Cup

TransINVEST Vilnius

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Banga

L. Zingertas 105'

Henrique Devens 49' (pen)

Zé Eduardo 73'

8/16/2023

Cup · Quarter-finalsŠirvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius40%

×Draw23%

Banga37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchBanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.58

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.66

Banga

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.22

creates per match

2.27

0.89

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.22

Banga

2.27

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

0.89

Banga

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Banga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Banga →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

63%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Banga

77%

Draw or Banga

60%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

20%

Banga wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

81%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

49%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

23%

Banga 1+ goals

79%

Banga 2+ goals

47%

Banga 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

52%

Banga (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Banga away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.22 + Banga defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.66

Banga attack 2.27 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

40%

level

23%

Banga scores more

37%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Malzinskas

42'

Carlos Eduardo

46'

K. Žebrauskas← V. Antužis

49'

Henrique DevensPenalty

58'

L. Zingertas← G. Nikonovas

58'

O. Kobakhidze← D. Kodz

61'

P. Kiselevskis← D. Virkšas

61'

N. Klimavičius← Y. Kawachi

69'

L. Tchapodze← A. Korsakas

71'

D. Zubauskas← V. Piliukaitis

73'

Zé Eduardo

74'

Ze Eduardo

79'

P. Srebalius← Zé Eduardo

81'

A. Civilis

86'

O. Kobakhidze

87'

L. Champodze

88'

L. Pilibaitis

90+4'

I. Venckus

90+2'

I. Venckus← Cesinha

91'

S. Urbys← Carlos Eduardo

105'

L. Zingertas

105'

L. Zingertas

119'

E. Černiavskij← S. Melashenko

TransINVEST

Banga

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: G. Barevičius

58'▲L. Zingertas←▼G. Nikonovas

58'▲O. Kobakhidze←▼D. Kodz

61'▲P. Kiselevskis←▼D. Virkšas

61'▲N. Klimavičius←▼Y. Kawachi

69'▲L. Tchapodze←▼A. Korsakas

119'▲E. Černiavskij←▼S. Melashenko

TransINVEST Vilnius substitutes

ZingertasKobakhidzeKiselevskisKlimavičiusTchapodzeČerniavskijValvonisJeriomenko

Manager: David Afonso

46'▲K. Žebrauskas←▼V. Antužis

71'▲D. Zubauskas←▼V. Piliukaitis

79'▲P. Srebalius←▼Zé Eduardo

90+2'▲I. Venckus←▼Cesinha

91'▲S. Urbys←▼Carlos Eduardo

Banga substitutes

ŽebrauskasZubauskasSrebaliusVenckusUrbysSmilingisToleikisAndrejevKirjanovAmbrazaitis