Tranmere 2–2 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sutton Utd

1/7/2023

League Two · Round 26Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Tranmere48%

×Draw26%

Sutton Utd26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.06

Tranmere

1.54

Sutton Utd

1.06

Tranmere creates 45% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 69 away

1.34

creates per match

1.12

1.01

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Tranmere

1.34

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Tranmere

1.01

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

74%

Tranmere or Sutton Utd

74%

Draw or Sutton Utd

52%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

25%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

79%

Tranmere 2+ goals

45%

Tranmere 3+ goals

20%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

65%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

29%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

65%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 165 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.34 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tranmere scores more

48%

level

26%

Sutton Utd scores more

26%

Tranmere at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff