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Sutton Utd vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tranmere
Tranmere
10/8/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 14VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd46%
×Draw26%
Tranmere28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.45
Tranmere
1.06

Sutton Utd creates 37% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 164 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Tranmere
1.04

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Tranmere
1.49

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
72%
Sutton Utd or Tranmere
74%
Draw or Tranmere
54%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
23%
Tranmere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
77%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
42%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
18%
Tranmere 1+ goals
65%
Tranmere 2+ goals
29%
Tranmere 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
62%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
46%
level
26%
Tranmere scores more
28%

Sutton Utd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 0–2 Tranmere

Tranmere beat Sutton Utd 2-0 in League Two on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.