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Tranmere vs Stockport County — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stockport County
Stockport County
11/1/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Tranmere34%
×Draw26%
Stockport County40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.23
Stockport County
1.36

Stockport County creates 11% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 47 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.34
Stockport County
1.72

allows per match

Tranmere
1.01
Stockport County
1.13

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
60%
Tranmere or Stockport County
74%
Draw or Stockport County
66%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
14%
Stockport County wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
71%
Tranmere 2+ goals
35%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%
Stockport County 1+ goals
74%
Stockport County 2+ goals
39%
Stockport County 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
46%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 165 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.34 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more
34%
level
26%
Stockport County scores more
40%

Stockport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Tranmere 0–0 Stockport County

Tranmere and Stockport County drew 0-0 in League Two on November 1, 2022.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.