Stockport County 2–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tranmere

10/28/2023

League Two · Round 16Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Stockport County55%

×Draw25%

Tranmere21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.88

Stockport County

1.61

Tranmere

0.88

Stockport County creates 83% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 164 away

1.74

creates per match

1.04

0.72

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Stockport County

1.74

Tranmere

1.04

allows per match

Stockport County

0.72

Tranmere

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

79%

Stockport County or Tranmere

75%

Draw or Tranmere

45%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

29%

Tranmere wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

80%

Stockport County 2+ goals

48%

Stockport County 3+ goals

22%

Tranmere 1+ goals

59%

Tranmere 2+ goals

22%

Tranmere 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

73%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.72 · 46 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.74 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Stockport County defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stockport County scores more

55%

level

25%

Tranmere scores more

21%

Stockport County at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff