Tranmere 4–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shrewsbury

K. Dennis 88'

O. Patrick 74'

J. Davison 22'

T. Harris 19'

8/9/2025

League Two · Round 2Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tranmere42%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.21

Tranmere

1.44

Shrewsbury

1.21

Tranmere creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

1.04

creates per match

0.87

1.54

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Tranmere

1.04

Shrewsbury

0.87

allows per match

Tranmere

1.54

Shrewsbury

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

68%

Tranmere or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

58%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

20%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

76%

Tranmere 2+ goals

42%

Tranmere 3+ goals

18%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

70%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

34%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

57%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Shrewsbury defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shrewsbury attack 0.87 + Tranmere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tranmere scores more

42%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

32%

Tranmere at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Patrick

Tranmere · M

9.3

Match Events

19'

T. Harris↳ C. Whitaker

22'

J. Davison↳ N. Kenneh

46'

G. Lloyd← A. Scully

46'

T. Sang← H. Biggins

46'

T. Perry← A. Gilliead

57'

William Boyle

58'

William Boyle

58'

William Boyle

64'

K. Dennis← J. Davison

64'

C. Jennings← T. Harris

70'

J. Turnbull← C. Whitaker

74'

O. Patrick↳ R. Smallwood

79'

J. Lowe← R. Smallwood

79'

B. Blacker← N. Kenneh

80'

C. Stewart← S. Clucas

84'

Taylor Perry

85'

Patrick Brough

88'

K. Dennis↳ O. Patrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereShrewsbury

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots13

1.19Expected Goals (xG)0.28

2Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots13

6On Target3

2Off Target7

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

58%Possession42%

451Total Passes334

330Accurate Passes223

73%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1