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Shrewsbury vs Tranmere — League Two 2025

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
S. Stubbs 55'
4/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 41The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shrewsbury39%
×Draw27%
Tranmere35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.32
Tranmere
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
0.96
Tranmere
1.28

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.17
Tranmere
1.68

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
65%
Shrewsbury or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
61%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
17%
Tranmere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
73%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
38%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
15%
Tranmere 1+ goals
71%
Tranmere 2+ goals
35%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
53%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 0.96 + Tranmere defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tranmere attack 1.28 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
39%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
35%

Shrewsbury at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
S. StubbsShrewsburyShrewsbury · D
8.3

Match Events

55'
S. Stubbs↳ K. Berkoe
61'
K. Woolery← C. Whitaker
61'
L. O'Connor← N. Kenneh
68'
O. Patrick← S. Finley
74'
T. Perry← B. Ihionvien
78'
K. Dennis← J. Ironside
80'
S. Clucas← T. Ojinnaka
86'
Patrick Brough
90+5'
G. Lloyd← I. Morgan

Possession

52%Shrewsbury

Shots

18Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

53%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyTranmere
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots4
5Corners5
4Fouls8
Shots
18Total Shots4
5On Target1
9Off Target2
4Blocked1
13Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
247Total Passes229
136Accurate Passes113
55%Pass Accuracy49%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
4Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

League Two: Shrewsbury 1–0 Tranmere

Shrewsbury beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on April 3, 2026.

Goals: S. Stubbs (55').

Shrewsbury controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury.