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Tranmere vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
15:00
Port Vale
Port Vale
3/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Prenton Park
Big match
39%
Port Vale
model favours
34%27%39%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tranmere34%
×Draw27%
Port Vale39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.23
Port Vale
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.04
Port Vale
1.14

allows per match

Tranmere
1.54
Port Vale
1.43

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
61%
Tranmere or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
66%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
15%
Port Vale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
71%
Tranmere 2+ goals
35%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%
Port Vale 1+ goals
74%
Port Vale 2+ goals
39%
Port Vale 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
46%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Port Vale defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Port Vale attack 1.14 + Tranmere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
34%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
39%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tranmere
Defensively solid
Port Vale
Balanced
51%Possession50%
64%Pass accuracy66%
9.4ShotsBiggest gap11.1
1.07xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmerePort Vale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Tranmere
4
Draws
0
Port Vale
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 60%
1–10–01–10–03–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
DLWLD
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Port Vale — Match Preview

Tranmere face Port Vale on March 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Port Vale at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.