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Port Vale vs Tranmere — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
8/17/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale43%
×Draw29%
Tranmere27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.21
Tranmere
0.89

Port Vale creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 25 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.75
Tranmere
1.28

allows per match

Port Vale
0.50
Tranmere
1.68

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
73%
Port Vale or Tranmere
71%
Draw or Tranmere
57%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
19%
Tranmere wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
70%
Port Vale 2+ goals
34%
Port Vale 3+ goals
12%
Tranmere 1+ goals
59%
Tranmere 2+ goals
22%
Tranmere 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
62%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.75 + Tranmere defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tranmere attack 1.28 + Port Vale defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Port Vale scores more
43%
level
29%
Tranmere scores more
27%

Port Vale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. RipleyPort ValePort Vale · G
7.5

Match Events

36'
Z. Bradshaw← L. Norris
45+4'
Connor Wood
49'
Ben Heneghan
60'
H. Saunders← J. Davison
60'
K. Dennis← O. Patrick
72'
B. Dipepa← E. Chislett
73'
J. Stockley← R. Paton
78'
Cameron Norman
84'
K. John← S. Hart
85'
Ronan Curtis
90+2'
Brad Walker
90+1'
Lee O'Connor

Possession

54%Port

Shots

8Port

Pass accuracy

53%Port

Statistics

PortTranmere
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots6
2Corners5
10Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots6
3On Target1
4Off Target0
1Blocked5
3Inside Box2
5Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
403Total Passes354
295Accurate Passes233
73%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Port Vale vs Tranmere

Port Vale and Tranmere drew 0-0 in League Two on August 17, 2024.

Port Vale controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.