Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tranmere vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Port Vale
Port Vale
K. Dennis 18'
R. Curtis 29'
3/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tranmere36%
×Draw25%
Port Vale39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.42
Port Vale
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.04
Port Vale
1.40

allows per match

Tranmere
1.54
Port Vale
1.80

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
61%
Tranmere or Port Vale
75%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
17%
Port Vale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
76%
Tranmere 2+ goals
41%
Tranmere 3+ goals
17%
Port Vale 1+ goals
77%
Port Vale 2+ goals
43%
Port Vale 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
49%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Port Vale defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Port Vale attack 1.40 + Tranmere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
36%
level
25%
Port Vale scores more
39%

Port Vale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. CurtisPort ValePort Vale · F
7.5

Match Events

18'
K. Dennis↳ R. Hendry
29'
R. Curtis↳ K. John
58'
Sam Hart
59'
Connor Wood
61'
C. Jennings← J. Hawkes
61'
L. Tolaj← A. Hackford
74'
J. Garrett← R. Hendry
75'
M. Clark← K. John
75'
E. Chislett← R. Harper
81'
T. Davies← J. Turnbull
87'
R. Richards← G. Byers
88'
Connor Wood
88'
Connor Wood
89'
Lorent Tolaj
90+7'
Luke McGee
90+2'
Omari Patrick

Possession

52%Tranmere

Shots

11Tranmere

Pass accuracy

49%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmerePort
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots7
9Corners3
11Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots7
5On Target2
4Off Target4
2Blocked1
5Inside Box5
6Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
378Total Passes354
244Accurate Passes245
65%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Tranmere vs Port Vale

Tranmere and Port Vale drew 1-1 in League Two on March 1, 2025.

Goals: K. Dennis (18'), R. Curtis (29').

Tranmere controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.