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Tranmere vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
14:00
Oldham
Oldham
9/5/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Prenton Park
Big match
38%
Oldham
model favours
34%28%38%

Tranmere sit 21, Oldham 10 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tranmere34%
×Draw28%
Oldham38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.13
Oldham
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.06
Oldham
1.20

allows per match

Tranmere
1.26
Oldham
1.20

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
62%
Tranmere or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
66%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
14%
Oldham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
68%
Tranmere 2+ goals
31%
Tranmere 3+ goals
11%
Oldham 1+ goals
71%
Oldham 2+ goals
35%
Oldham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
47%
Oldham (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.06 + Oldham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Oldham attack 1.20 + Tranmere defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tranmere scores more
34%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
38%

Oldham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tranmere
Defensively solid
Oldham
Balanced
50%Possession49%
67%Pass accuracy63%
10.0ShotsBiggest gap11.9
1.01xG1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Tranmere
0
Draws
3
Oldham
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
1–31–31–22–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
DLWLD
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Oldham

September 5, 2026: Tranmere take on Oldham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Oldham at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.