Oldham 0–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Oldham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

C. Jolley 90'

12/7/2021

League Two · Round 20Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Oldham42%

×Draw26%

Tranmere32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OldhamExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

Oldham

1.42

Tranmere

1.19

Oldham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 139 away

1.36

creates per match

0.99

1.40

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Oldham

1.36

Tranmere

0.99

allows per match

Oldham

1.40

Tranmere

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oldham or draw

68%

Oldham or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

58%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+

20%

Tranmere wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals

76%

Oldham 2+ goals

41%

Oldham 3+ goals

17%

Tranmere 1+ goals

70%

Tranmere 2+ goals

33%

Tranmere 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)

57%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.40 · 89 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.36 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tranmere attack 0.99 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oldham scores more

42%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

32%

Oldham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Adams

Oldham · D

8.3

Match Events

45'

L. Feeney← J. Hawkes

52'

C. Whelan← O. Cissé

71'

D. Bahamboula← Z. Dearnley

78'

L. O'Connor← J. Spearing

79'

J. Stobbs← H. Vaughan

80'

K. Morris← C. McManaman

90'

C. Jolley↳ K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OldhamTranmere

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots17

8Corners9

4Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots17

5On Target4

4Off Target9

5Blocked4

13Inside Box7

1Outside Box10

Passing

54%Possession46%

376Total Passes313

262Accurate Passes200

70%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls6

1Offsides1