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Tranmere vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Oldham
Oldham
Z. Obiero 90'
J. Stevens 75' (pen)
C. Kavanagh 45'
M. Fondop-Talum 20'
3/7/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tranmere32%
×Draw28%
Oldham40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.10
Oldham
1.27

Oldham creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.04
Oldham
1.24

allows per match

Tranmere
1.29
Oldham
1.17

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
60%
Tranmere or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
68%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
13%
Oldham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
67%
Tranmere 2+ goals
30%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%
Oldham 1+ goals
72%
Oldham 2+ goals
36%
Oldham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
44%
Oldham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Oldham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Oldham attack 1.24 + Tranmere defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more
32%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
40%

Oldham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
K. DrummondOldhamOldham · M
8.3

Match Events

20'
M. Fondop-Talum↳ M. Monthe
34'
A. McGowan← S. Negru
38'
Jason Lowe
42'
Jack Stevens
45'
C. Kavanagh↳ J. Stevens
46'
S. Solomon← L. Warrington
72'
Joe Murphy
73'
J. Barrett← J. Murphy
73'
M. Dickov← J. Plant
74'
C. Norman← J. Lowe
75'
J. StevensPenalty
77'
J. Hawkes← J. Stevens
83'
K. Payne← C. Kavanagh
84'
J. Garner← M. Fondop-Talum
84'
O. Hammond← K. Drummond
90+3'
K. Taylor← T. Pett
90'
Z. Obiero↳ O. Patrick

Possession

55%Tranmere

Shots

13Tranmere

Pass accuracy

52%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereOldham
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots9
0.49Expected Goals (xG)1.32
2Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots9
1On Target5
6Off Target2
6Blocked2
9Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
405Total Passes324
256Accurate Passes189
63%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

League Two: Tranmere 1–3 Oldham

Oldham beat Tranmere 3-1 in League Two on March 7, 2026.

Goals: M. Fondop-Talum (20'), C. Kavanagh (45'), J. Stevens (75' pen), Z. Obiero (90').

Tranmere controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead.