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Tranmere vs Oldham — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Oldham
Oldham
2/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Tranmere44%
×Draw27%
Oldham29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.40
Oldham
1.08

Tranmere creates 30% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 111 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.34
Oldham
1.16

allows per match

Tranmere
1.01
Oldham
1.45

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
71%
Tranmere or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
56%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
21%
Oldham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
75%
Tranmere 2+ goals
41%
Tranmere 3+ goals
17%
Oldham 1+ goals
66%
Oldham 2+ goals
29%
Oldham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
60%
Oldham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 163 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.34 + Oldham defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Oldham attack 1.16 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tranmere scores more
44%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
29%

Tranmere at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Tranmere 2–2 Oldham

Tranmere and Oldham drew 2-2 in League Two on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.