Tranmere 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

K. Morris 12'

E. Harrison 90+6'

A. Gilbey 9'

1/13/2024

League Two · Round 28Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Tranmere35%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.41

Tranmere

1.33

Milton Keynes Dons

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

1.04

creates per match

1.53

1.29

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Tranmere

1.04

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Tranmere

1.29

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

61%

Tranmere or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

65%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

16%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

74%

Tranmere 2+ goals

38%

Tranmere 3+ goals

15%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

76%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

48%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more

35%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

39%

Milton Keynes Dons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Tomlinson

Milton Keynes Dons · M

7.6

Match Events

9'

A. Gilbey↳ M. Williams

12'

K. Morris

45+2'

Robert Apter

67'

R. McAlear← K. Morris

68'

P. Lewis← C. Jolley

72'

E. Harrison← M. Dean

72'

J. Leko← K. Lofthouse

79'

90+3'

90+3'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereMilton

Overview

36%Possession64%

5Total Shots24

2Corners6

7Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots24

2On Target6

2Off Target12

1Blocked6

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box12

Passing

36%Possession64%

349Total Passes635

252Accurate Passes543

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1