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Milton Keynes Dons vs Tranmere — League Two 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. White 23'
R. Hendry 90+1'
10/5/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons53%
×Draw24%
Tranmere24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.73
Tranmere
1.08

Milton Keynes Dons creates 60% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 47 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.64
Tranmere
1.13

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.03
Tranmere
1.81

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
76%
Milton Keynes Dons or Tranmere
76%
Draw or Tranmere
47%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
29%
Tranmere wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
82%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
52%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
25%
Tranmere 1+ goals
66%
Tranmere 2+ goals
29%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
69%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Tranmere defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tranmere attack 1.13 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
53%
level
24%
Tranmere scores more
24%

Milton Keynes Dons at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
R. HendryTranmereTranmere · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
J. White↳ L. Maguire
33'
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans
59'
Aaron Nemane
64'
S. Finch← T. Leigh
64'
T. Carroll← J. White
64'
H. Saunders← K. Dennis
68'
Omari Patrick
77'
R. Hendry← K. Morris
77'
J. Davison← O. Patrick
82'
M. Williams← L. Kelly
90+1'
R. Hendry↳ C. Norman

Possession

55%Milton

Shots

10Milton

Pass accuracy

52%Milton

Statistics

MiltonTranmere
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots8
5Corners5
12Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target3
4Off Target2
2Blocked3
7Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
562Total Passes458
474Accurate Passes359
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Tranmere

Milton Keynes Dons and Tranmere drew 1-1 in League Two on October 5, 2024.

Goals: J. White (23'), R. Hendry (90+1').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.