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Tranmere vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
14:00
Crewe
Crewe
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Prenton Park
Big match
37%
Tranmere
model favours
37%27%37%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tranmere37%
×Draw27%
Crewe37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.27
Crewe
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
63%
Tranmere or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
63%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
16%
Crewe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
36%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
50%
Crewe (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Crewe attack 1.30 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tranmere scores more
37%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
37%

Tranmere at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Tranmere sit 21, Crewe 11 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Crewe
Balanced
50%Possession50%
67%Pass accuracy70%
12.1Shots11.3
1.13xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereCrewe

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

2
Tranmere
1
Draws
5
Crewe
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 38%
1–21–42–01–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Crewe

April 3, 2027: Tranmere take on Crewe in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Crewe at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.