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Crewe vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. March 90'
C. Thomas 77'
J. Plant 44'
2/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 35Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Crewe39%
×Draw25%
Tranmere36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.48
Tranmere
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
64%
Crewe or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
61%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
19%
Tranmere wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
77%
Crewe 2+ goals
43%
Crewe 3+ goals
19%
Tranmere 1+ goals
75%
Tranmere 2+ goals
41%
Tranmere 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
52%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Crewe scores more
39%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
36%

Crewe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. DemetriouCreweCrewe · D
8.2

Match Events

44'
J. Plant
46'
O. Bogle← A. Thibaut
51'
Sam Finley
61'
C. Norman← J. Plant
70'
C. Thomas← J. Powell
70'
N. Kenneh← S. Finley
76'
J. Lankester← C. Agius
77'
C. Thomas↳ T. O'Reilly
78'
P. Brough← A. McGowan
79'
M. Dickov← J. Ironside
90+2'
Josh March
90+5'
Lewis Warrington
90'
Zech Obiero
90+2'
J. Connolly← T. O'Reilly
90'
J. March↳ T. O'Reilly

Possession

62%Crewe

Shots

17Crewe

Pass accuracy

58%Crewe

Statistics

CreweTranmere
Overview
62%Possession38%
17Total Shots6
1.16Expected Goals (xG)0.95
5Corners1
10Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots6
5On Target2
8Off Target2
4Blocked2
10Inside Box2
7Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
423Total Passes282
329Accurate Passes160
78%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Crewe vs Tranmere

Crewe beat Tranmere 2-1 in League Two on February 28, 2026.

Goals: J. Plant (44'), C. Thomas (77'), J. March (90').

Crewe controlled possession (62%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.