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Crewe vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tranmere
Tranmere
10/26/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Mornflake Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Crewe47%
×Draw25%
Tranmere27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.54
Tranmere
1.11

Crewe creates 39% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 164 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.59
Tranmere
1.04

allows per match

Crewe
1.19
Tranmere
1.49

finishing

Crewe+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
73%
Crewe or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
53%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
24%
Tranmere wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
79%
Crewe 2+ goals
45%
Crewe 3+ goals
20%
Tranmere 1+ goals
67%
Tranmere 2+ goals
30%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
63%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.19 · 135 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.59 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Crewe defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Crewe scores more
47%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
27%

Crewe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Crewe 3–1 Tranmere

Crewe beat Tranmere 3-1 in League Two on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Mornflake Stadium in Crewe, Cheshire.