Tranmere 3–0 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

E. Nevitt 90', 56'

D. Simeu 22'

10/14/2022

League Two · Round 15Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tranmere37%

×Draw27%

Crewe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Tranmere

1.27

Crewe

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.09

creates per match

1.30

1.21

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Crewe

1.44

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

64%

Tranmere or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

63%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

16%

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

36%

Tranmere 3+ goals

14%

Crewe 1+ goals

71%

Crewe 2+ goals

36%

Crewe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

51%

Crewe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Crewe attack 1.30 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tranmere scores more

37%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

36%

Tranmere at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

E. Nevitt

Tranmere · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

D. Simeu↳ K. Morris

33'

E. Nevitt← P. Lewis

52'

Chris Merrie

56'

E. Nevitt↳ J. Dacres-Cogley

60'

B. Sambou← T. Leshabela

60'

L. Brook← C. Thomas

76'

O. Finney← J. Tabiner

86'

C. Finney← R. Adebisi

89'

R. Hughes← J. Hawkes

90+4'

J. Burton← K. Hemmings

90'

E. Nevitt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereCrewe

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots6

6Corners6

7Fouls5

Shots

16Total Shots6

7On Target0

6Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box5

6Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

411Total Passes427

265Accurate Passes285

64%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides2