Tranmere 2–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Crawley Town

2/14/2026

League Two · Round 32Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 158+ matches

Tranmere47%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Tranmere

1.48

Crawley Town

1.04

Tranmere creates 42% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 158 away

1.34

creates per match

1.08

1.01

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Tranmere

1.34

Crawley Town

1.08

allows per match

Tranmere

1.01

Crawley Town

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

73%

Tranmere or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

53%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

24%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

77%

Tranmere 2+ goals

43%

Tranmere 3+ goals

19%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

65%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

28%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

64%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 165 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.34 + Crawley Town defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Crawley Town attack 1.08 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tranmere scores more

47%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

27%

Tranmere at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff