Crawley Town 0–2 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Crawley Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

8/23/2025

League Two · Round 5The Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 160+ matches

Crawley Town44%

×Draw26%

Tranmere30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crawley TownExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Crawley Town

1.44

Tranmere

1.13

Crawley Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 160 home / 164 away

1.39

creates per match

1.04

1.21

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Crawley Town

1.39

Tranmere

1.04

allows per match

Crawley Town

1.21

Tranmere

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw

70%

Crawley Town or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

56%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+

21%

Tranmere wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals

76%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

42%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

18%

Tranmere 1+ goals

68%

Tranmere 2+ goals

31%

Tranmere 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

60%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.21 · 160 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.39 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Crawley Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crawley Town scores more

44%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

30%

Crawley Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crawley Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff