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Tranmere vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
18:45
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
4/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Prenton Park
39%
Tranmere
model favours
39%27%34%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Tranmere39%
×Draw27%
Chesterfield34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.33
Chesterfield
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
66%
Tranmere or Chesterfield
73%
Draw or Chesterfield
61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
18%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
38%
Tranmere 3+ goals
15%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
71%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
35%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
53%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
39%
level
27%
Chesterfield scores more
34%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tranmere sit 21, Chesterfield 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
50%PossessionBiggest gap60%
67%Pass accuracy78%
12.0Shots11.9
1.13xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereChesterfield

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Tranmere
2
Draws
1
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
1–11–14–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Chesterfield — Match Preview

Tranmere face Chesterfield on April 27, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Chesterfield at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.