Chesterfield 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tranmere

T. Naylor 44'

S. Finley 53'

4/11/2026

League Two · Round 43SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield41%

×Draw26%

Tranmere34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Chesterfield

1.42

Tranmere

1.27

Chesterfield creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.18

1.37

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.45

Tranmere

1.18

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.37

Tranmere

1.39

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.05on par

Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

66%

Chesterfield or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

59%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

19%

Tranmere wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

76%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

41%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

36%

Tranmere 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

55%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 10 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.45 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Chesterfield defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chesterfield scores more

41%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

34%

Chesterfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Finley

Tranmere · M

7.6

Match Events

17'

Kyle McFadzean

19'

Sam Finley

44'

T. Naylor↳ J. Berry-McNally

46'

J. Donacien← M. Owolabi-Belewu

46'

L. Gordon← K. McFadzean

53'

57'

66'

69'

69'

C. Whitaker← O. Patrick

75'

J. Fleck← J. Berry-McNally

75'

L. Mandeville← D. Markanday

77'

Lewis Gordon

82'

K. Dennis← Z. Obiero

83'

E. Bristow← P. Brough

85'

D. Duffy← L. Bonis

90+5'

Kristian Dennis

90+2'

J. Plant← K. Woolery

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldTranmere

Overview

68%Possession32%

7Total Shots13

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.86

6Corners7

9Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target5

1Blocked4

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

506Total Passes241

428Accurate Passes150

85%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1