Tranmere 1–1 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chesterfield

C. Jennings 90'

O. Patrick 12' (OG)

10/25/2025

League Two · Round 14Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Tranmere39%

×Draw27%

Chesterfield34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.23

Tranmere

1.33

Chesterfield

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.10

creates per match

1.22

1.25

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Tranmere

1.10

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Tranmere

1.25

Chesterfield

1.57

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

66%

Tranmere or Chesterfield

73%

Draw or Chesterfield

61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

74%

Tranmere 2+ goals

38%

Tranmere 3+ goals

15%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

71%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

35%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

53%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more

39%

level

27%

Chesterfield scores more

34%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Murphy

Tranmere · G

7.9

Match Events

12'

O. PatrickOwn goal

26'

Ryan Stirk

40'

Chey Dunkley

70'

R. Darcy← L. Mandeville

70'

D. Duffy← J. Berry-McNally

78'

J. Joseph← C. Norman

78'

S. Solomon← J. Davison

78'

T. Harris← C. Whitaker

89'

W. Grigg← L. Bonis

90'

C. Jennings↳ B. Blacker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereChesterfield

Overview

57%Possession43%

13Total Shots9

4Corners7

14Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target4

2Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

386Total Passes292

269Accurate Passes179

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3