Tranmere 1–0 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

J. Hawkes 25'

10/1/2022

League Two · Round 12Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Tranmere48%

×Draw26%

Barrow26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Tranmere

1.50

Barrow

1.04

Tranmere creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.09

creates per match

0.87

1.21

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Barrow

1.91

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

74%

Tranmere or Barrow

74%

Draw or Barrow

52%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

24%

Barrow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

78%

Tranmere 2+ goals

44%

Tranmere 3+ goals

19%

Barrow 1+ goals

65%

Barrow 2+ goals

28%

Barrow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

65%

Barrow (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Barrow attack 0.87 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tranmere scores more

48%

level

26%

Barrow scores more

26%

Tranmere at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Hawkes

Tranmere · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

25'

67'

75'

75'

D. Moyo← H. Neal

86'

R. McAlear← C. Merrie

86'

87'

90+3'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereBarrow

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots6

7Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots6

7On Target1

4Off Target3

1Blocked2

9Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

373Total Passes378

225Accurate Passes222

60%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4