Barrow 1–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

1/6/2024

League Two · Round 27SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Barrow43%

×Draw27%

Tranmere30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Barrow

1.34

Tranmere

1.08

Barrow creates 24% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 164 away

1.20

creates per match

1.04

1.12

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Tranmere

1.04

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Tranmere

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

70%

Barrow or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

57%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

20%

Tranmere wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

74%

Barrow 2+ goals

39%

Barrow 3+ goals

15%

Tranmere 1+ goals

66%

Tranmere 2+ goals

29%

Tranmere 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

59%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barrow scores more

43%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

30%

Barrow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff