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Barrow vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
4/21/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 44SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Barrow43%
×Draw27%
Tranmere30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.34
Tranmere
1.08

Barrow creates 24% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 164 away

creates per match

Barrow
1.20
Tranmere
1.04

allows per match

Barrow
1.12
Tranmere
1.49

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
70%
Barrow or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
57%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
20%
Tranmere wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
74%
Barrow 2+ goals
39%
Barrow 3+ goals
15%
Tranmere 1+ goals
66%
Tranmere 2+ goals
29%
Tranmere 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
59%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.49 · 164 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Tranmere defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tranmere attack 1.04 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barrow scores more
43%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
30%

Barrow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barrow vs Tranmere

Barrow and Tranmere drew 0-0 in League Two on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.