Tranmere 0–2 Barnet: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Barnet

A. Senior 40'

L. Ndlovu 26'

10/11/2025

League Two · Round 12Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Tranmere35%

×Draw27%

Barnet38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchBarnet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.30

Tranmere

1.23

Barnet

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.09

creates per match

1.40

1.21

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Barnet

1.40

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Barnet

1.36

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Barnet+0.03on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Barnet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

62%

Tranmere or Barnet

73%

Draw or Barnet

65%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

15%

Barnet wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

71%

Tranmere 2+ goals

35%

Tranmere 3+ goals

13%

Barnet 1+ goals

73%

Barnet 2+ goals

37%

Barnet 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

48%

Barnet (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Barnet defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Barnet attack 1.40 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tranmere scores more

35%

level

27%

Barnet scores more

38%

Barnet at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

N. Tavares

Barnet · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

L. Ndlovu↳ A. Hartigan

40'

A. Senior↳ D. Collinge

46'

S. Finley← R. Smallwood

46'

C. Jennings← S. Solomon

46'

B. Blacker← N. Kenneh

47'

Cieran Slicker

52'

Daniele Collinge

57'

Romoney Crichlow

69'

R. Galvin← R. Crichlow-Noble

72'

A. McGowan← J. Joseph

81'

M. Shelton← C. Stead

82'

Oliver Hawkins

82'

O. Hawkins← L. Ndlovu

83'

J. Davison← C. Whitaker

90+3'

E. Osadebe← I. Kanu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereBarnet

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots14

2Corners6

13Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots14

0On Target4

4Off Target7

9Blocked3

5Inside Box11

8Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

303Total Passes289

173Accurate Passes182

57%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1